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Monday Night Open Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Blog Related
Posted on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 06:47:13 PM EST
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Plenty of politics to talk about. Tomorrow John Kasich and Marco Rubio will find out how voters in their home state feel about them -- going home might not be so sweet, especially for Rubio. I think Kasich will take Ohio, he's got a slight edge over Trump in the latest polls.

In other news: A Palestinian-American fighting for ISIS surrendered to the Kurds/Iraqis today. Russia announced it was pulling most of its military forces from Syria.[More...]

Other topics: The Bachelor finale is tonight, the show is making it sound like something dramatic will happen, like a last minute change of heart (known as "pulling a Mesnick" when Jason first picked Melissa and by the time the finale aired, had switched to Molly. Not a fake, since Jason and Molly married years ago, have a daughter and are still married.) So will Ben pick Lauren or JoJo and will he stick with his pick? We'll know tonight.

James Corden and the Late Late Show will be doing a carpool karaoke special March 29 in prime time -- JLo is one new name announced. He'll have been on CBS a year.

< Obama's Supreme Court Choices | Trump and Hillary win Florida, Kasich Takes Ohio >

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    Monday Night Open Thread | 201 comments (201 topical)
    Re Russia (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by ruffian on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 06:57:53 PM EST
    Anyone notice that the gasoline prices have risen quite a bit in tha last couple of weeks? I think my spidey sense about our diplomacy with Russia has been confirmed. That particular lever has yielded some good results and we are rewarding them.  I do not believe any free market explanations of oil prices. I think it is all manipulated.

    I'm watching Hillary on a townhall with Tweety. He did his best to nail her, but she is unflappable. He even tried to tell her she lost Iowa. Only in your dreams, Tweety.

    Of Course They are Manipulated... (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by ScottW714 on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 10:15:20 AM EST
    ... it's the entire reason OPEC exists, to limit supply.  They were trying to undercut Russian in hopes of keeping them out of the market.  It did not work.  But now they have started limiting production again and prices are rebounding.

    They are saying that this summer was the bottom, damn I sure hope so, while it's hitting Texas especially hard, the low energy prices are/were killing the markets.

    What I find odd and disturbing is when prices were sky high, everything went up, from groceries to tires.  But when they plummeted, prices remained steady except for what we pay at the pump.

    Parent

    Yeah, let's give our money to the oil (none / 0) (#43)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:33:56 PM EST
    thieves instead of groceries, clothes, medicine, housing, entertainment....

    And your right, once up never down.

    Parent

    Not Sure If You... (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by ScottW714 on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:42:24 PM EST
    ...wander away from Fox long enough to realize that once crude went up, the markets followed, ditto for when crude took a nose dive.  Markets are the lifeblood to most American's long term wealth.

    But sure, keep people's futures down so you can can cheap goods today, the republican way.  Us folks not older than dirt would prefer the markets increase because we realize the small cost of higher energy is well worth the large increases in our long term investments, like 401k's.

    I keep missing where you thanked Obama for cheap fuel, guess I missed it, but since you blamed him when it was high...
    ------------------

    BTW, NASA just confirmed, February the warmest month ever on record and the folks on Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana just got $50 million to relocate.  First American Global Warming refugees.

    Parent

    Congratulations, Texas! (none / 0) (#92)
    by NYShooter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:02:58 PM EST
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
    452 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

    ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT AUSTIN CAMP MABRY...

    A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES WAS SET AT AUSTIN CAMP MABRY TODAY.

    THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 90 DEGREES SET IN 1936.


    Parent

    86 Yesterday in Houton... (none / 0) (#199)
    by ScottW714 on Wed Mar 16, 2016 at 09:15:01 AM EST
    ... and it's still officially winter.  Last weekend was beautiful, 70's and hardly any humidity, even though we got a ton of rain last week.

    I-10 is shut down because of the rain, the Sabine river, which divides Texas & Louisiana is cresting.  I-10 runs from Florida to California and the detour from NOLA goes through Shreveport and adds ~200 miles to a 350 miles trip from Houston to New Orleans, or turns a 5 hour trip into a 9 hour one.

    Parent

    Did they use the thermometers (none / 0) (#123)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:58:47 PM EST
    located in an AC exhaust or satellite??? And you do understand that real scientists talking about trends, not a single day, week, month or year.

    And I don't thank people who aren't responsible for whatever good I have received.

    And I remember the late 70's and early 80's when the oil patch was rocking and the rest of us were stuck in stagflation. So you'll get no sympathy from me.

    As for markets, oft timnes they go up when unemployment goes up because they expect low inflation and more free money from the Feds.

    And take my advice. Don't have your retirement invested in a bubble industry like oil or housing. Long term go medical and tech.

    Parent

    OK Jim... (none / 0) (#200)
    by ScottW714 on Wed Mar 16, 2016 at 09:18:04 AM EST
    ... now you know more than NASA.

    Parent
    Summer blend time is causing some of the (none / 0) (#8)
    by nycstray on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 09:12:33 PM EST
    Increase, especially here in ca.

    Parent
    Yeah...that's what they tell us (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:11:38 AM EST
    I'm not a crank! This is the only conspiracy theory I subscribe to.

    Parent
    Remember in Colorado when it was (none / 0) (#21)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:27:42 AM EST
    "Winterblend" that caused priced hikes ;)?

    Parent
    Well. . . (none / 0) (#25)
    by nycstray on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 09:33:28 AM EST
    I was going to add that spring break and Easter were coming up. . . 😛

    Parent
    sorry to sound dumb (none / 0) (#13)
    by athyrio on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 10:19:19 PM EST
    but who is tweety?

    Parent
    Chris (none / 0) (#14)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 10:27:19 PM EST
    Matthews.

    Parent
    Chris Matthews (none / 0) (#15)
    by pitachips on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 10:27:22 PM EST
    From Hardball...

    I personally can't stand him either.

    Parent

    "Upheaval at Breitbart News... (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by Mr Natural on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 11:01:02 PM EST
    ...Workers Resign and Accusations Fly"

    In an ironic twist, Breitbart, a news and opinion website that welcomed the rise of Donald J. Trump as an outsider candidate, is now facing a problem similar to the one roiling the Republican Party it likes to torment: a scathing internal dispute, with Mr. Trump at its center.

    Several top executives and journalists at the site have resigned in the last week, saying the organization has turned into a shill for the Trump campaign and failed to support Michelle Fields, a Breitbart reporter who accused Mr. Trump's campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, of grabbing and shoving her at a Florida rally last week.

    Here, playing them offstage, to the Justicialistas of tomorrow from a Justicialista of yesteryear, Julie Covington, the original Evita.

    The problem that (none / 0) (#45)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:48:00 PM EST
    the insurgents have is that no one gives a flip that they are gone.

    Parent
    Isn't that the same problem (5.00 / 2) (#72)
    by Repack Rider on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:05:16 PM EST
    ...That the people who stayed at Breitbart have, i.e. that no one ever cared whether you lived or died, were there or not there, produced or didn't produce, because your "work" is so unimportant, so widely ignored, and so demonstrably wrong that it actually reduces human knowledge rather than increasing it?

    But people gave them money, for a while at least, before coming out of a coma.  If I were not cursed with a conscience I would be a Republican or a televangelist and I would be rich, because the rubes line up for sociopaths.

    Parent

    Let me see (none / 0) (#111)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:46:56 PM EST
    Supposedly someone working for Trump grabbed her arm. Whether she tried to pull away or whether he tried to pull her I really don't know.

    And while I will give you that she shouldn't have been grabbed, period, it looks like she was aggressively trying to get to Trump when it happened.

    Things happen when it's a football scrum like situation.

    So my take away is that people who don't like Trump were angered because management didn't get their knickers in a wad, threatened to quit and discovered that no one cared.

    Plenty of people with journalism degrees around.

    Sad but factual.

    Parent

    The most annoying Samders cable news meme (5.00 / 2) (#42)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:31:45 PM EST
    Recently is that because he is winning in some blue states he is a better general election candidate.

    As if those blue states will vote for a republican if Hillary is the nominee.

    Fu@king craven dishonest a-holes

    Getting trounced in Ohio ought to stop that meme (none / 0) (#186)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:24:55 PM EST


    Parent
    Ooooo (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:03:27 PM EST
    Goodbye Rubio Tuesday

    Good one Brian

    I took some time ... (none / 0) (#116)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:51:51 PM EST
    trying to model a Rubio upset in Florida. And I just couldn't find the data.

    Parent
    I'm very relieved (none / 0) (#119)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:54:51 PM EST


    Parent
    MSNBC calls Ohio for Clinton (5.00 / 1) (#164)
    by sallywally on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:42:56 PM EST


    Ohio (5.00 / 1) (#165)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:43:39 PM EST
    must gonna be a blowout 'cause they already called it for Hillary.

    Delegate wise (none / 0) (#166)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:46:13 PM EST
    this is looking to be Sanders' worst night of the primary season.

    Parent
    But nothing, I repeat nothing, (none / 0) (#167)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:46:14 PM EST
    she does will we be better than Sanders' historic win in Michigan....against the polls.

    Give it a rest Maddow.

    Parent

    Change the channel! (none / 0) (#173)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:04:57 PM EST


    Parent
    The OJ miniseries is almost on :-) (5.00 / 1) (#174)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:12:21 PM EST


    Parent
    Sonofamailman....preach it! (5.00 / 2) (#184)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:23:29 PM EST


    On an unrelated note (5.00 / 1) (#188)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:38:29 PM EST
    Reuters is reporting Obama will nominate either Sri Srinivasan or Merrick Garland to the SCOTUS tomorrow.

    They are both at the bottom (5.00 / 1) (#189)
    by caseyOR on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:51:33 PM EST
    of my list of the known possible candidates. Both too conservative/corporate.

    Parent
    Looks like he's going the route of (none / 0) (#190)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:56:02 PM EST
    nominating someone he GOP has no excuse to block besides sheer obstructionism. Game on.

    Parent
    I just got back to my condo. (5.00 / 2) (#191)
    by caseyOR on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:56:15 PM EST
    Tornado sirens went off at around 8 pm. I had to stuff the cat into her travel case and run down to the underground parking garage to wait it out.

    Now it is just rain and some gusty wind. Tornadoes were sighted in the area.

    Oh my goodness -- Glad you and kitty... (5.00 / 3) (#193)
    by Cashmere on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 09:14:43 PM EST
    are OK!

    Parent
    Thanks. (none / 0) (#194)
    by caseyOR on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 09:20:37 PM EST


    Parent
    Yes (none / 0) (#2)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 07:06:05 PM EST
    it is close in Ohio with Kasich a few points up on Trump there. I guess Kasich lives to fight another day but what happens to Rubio? Does he finally drop out?

    Rubio to star in the Walking Dead (5.00 / 4) (#3)
    by CoralGables on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 08:34:31 PM EST
    as soon as polls close in Florida tomorrow.

    Parent
    If he goes on (none / 0) (#4)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 08:37:54 PM EST
    It might be evidence that the party really is planning some kind of shenanigans.  What else would be the point?

    Parent
    No need to continue at this point (none / 0) (#5)
    by CoralGables on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 08:48:33 PM EST
    even if shenanigans are planned. All it does is make him look worse.

    Parent
    I guess (none / 0) (#6)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 08:51:24 PM EST
    But wouldn't it "look" better if he was at least still in the race if they plan to do some kind of unity thing?

    I just read this afternoon that he swears he's not dropping out even if he loses.

    Course I know that could change

    Parent

    As I understand it, if he ... (none / 0) (#31)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 10:30:32 AM EST
    withdraws, his delegates become unbound.

    He'll do whatever he can to keep this from happening.

    Not sure if the "suspending" language is enough.  He may be required to do some type of electioneering.

    Parent

    I seriously (none / 0) (#7)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 09:06:30 PM EST
    doubt Rubio cares about how he looks at this point. Maybe he wants to play the role of useful idiot.

    Parent
    Or With All the Talk... (none / 0) (#30)
    by ScottW714 on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 10:20:08 AM EST
    ... of little Marco maybe he is thinking ahead 4/8 years and just basking in the free publicity so he can come back as big Marco.  But damn, if you can't even take your own state, that could backfire if the polls are accurate, big time.

    He is young, and so is Cruz.  They don't seem like the types to take a hint, and they way the party is going, they really are about the best they have to offer.

    Parent

    Neither of the little three (none / 0) (#44)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:37:32 PM EST
    are/will be acceptable to the party's new base.

    Parent
    But You Are Old (none / 0) (#69)
    by ScottW714 on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:59:59 PM EST


    Parent
    Thom Hartmann, (none / 0) (#9)
    by desertswine on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 09:20:45 PM EST
    the radio guy, was thinking last December (with Alan Grayson) that there would be a brokered convention and the Repubs would push Paul Ryan for the nomination.

    Parent
    They can't do that (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:21:58 AM EST
    Unless, of course, the Rules Committee changes the rules (which they can pretty much at any time).

    Rule 40 currently says that a candidate must have w9n a majority of delegates in at least 8 primaries to even be considered.  So far, only Trump is 9n target to meet that threshhold.

    Contested conventions are rare, but keep in mind this is actually what the purpose of a convention was.  In reality, since the parties changed the rulrs to allow people to vote for a candidate, instead of the party leaders just putting up a nominee, the purpose of the convention has disappeared.  Now, it's just a multi-night party and free infomercial for the party platform.  But even that aspect is fading as the networks realized they could have original programming on in the summer and with 24 hour news and the internet, people can follow along without devoting 4 nights.  (Remember when the conventions were the only thing on TV??)

    Parent

    Modern conventions are four day versions (none / 0) (#23)
    by Mr Natural on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:19:08 AM EST
    of the Oscars.  They are, except for five minutes somewhere in the middle, unwatchable tripe.

    And the pretty speeches?  In Mary McCarthy's words, every word a lie, including "and" and "the."

    Parent

    I believe you are mistaken (none / 0) (#24)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 09:32:34 AM EST


    Parent
    No, I'm not mistaken (none / 0) (#26)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 09:56:04 AM EST
    Specifically, Rule 40 (b) states:

    Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a 40 of 42 majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.

    More simply

    There's a new rule this year called Rule 40, which says a candidate must have won a majority of delegates in at least eight primary contests to even be considered at the convention.

    The rule was adopted after the 2012 convention as a way to prohibit outsiders who hadn't run in primaries from hijacking the nomination at a convention.

    So far, only Trump is on course to meet that benchmark.

    The Republican National Committee meets throughout the year, and can attempt to change the rule before the convention or as it begins.



    Parent
    I she now you said (none / 0) (#28)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 10:06:18 AM EST
    "Unless they change the rules"  which they can certainly do.

    The possibility is being trotted out way to often to think it would not be easily doable

    Parent

    If You Are Going to Try... (none / 0) (#32)
    by ScottW714 on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 10:44:51 AM EST
    ... and push a candidate through who doesn't have the most delegates, seems like changing the rules would be the least of their problems.  IMO they won't do it unless they have someone who they feel can beat HRC.  The problem is that Trump is their best shot, but that is exactly what they don't want, President Trump(R).

    Ryan got shredded by Biden in the debate, HRC would eat him for lunch and ask for seconds.  No way is Ryan going to be their secret weapon.


    Parent

    I don't think thats really it (none / 0) (#33)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 11:05:13 AM EST
    I think it's more about stopping Donald than winning with someone else.  And IMO it's not because of any of the things he has said about Latinos or Muslims or anyone else.   While I have no doubt they would rather he not be so honest what he's saying is what they all more or less believe.
    IMO the problem is that Donald is not a member of the club.  It's not just that he has wildly divergent views on things like trade but it's that he answers to no one.  He's doesn't seek their support money or advise.  And he will not.  The republican establishment is even more terrified of Donald that we are.  He literally represents an existential threat to the Republican Party as it has existed for the last few generations.

    Which btw is one of the reasons some democrats will vote for him.

    IMO this is why they might choose suicide over a Trump candidacy.   Although I still agree it's at least less than 50 50.  It will be a fascinating thing to watch.

    Parent

    There, actually, are rational reasons (none / 0) (#106)
    by NYShooter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:41:31 PM EST
    for the so-called, establishment, to be deathly afraid of a Trump Presidency. And, it has nothing to do with politics, and everything to do with the economy.

    My friends down at Broad & Wall, doing a quick, "back of the envelope calculation," using just the couple of things Trump is claiming he'll do for (to) the economy, predict an overnight, surgical 50% haircut for the S&P 500. Using no emotional panic, just historical ratios, a 50% cut is baked in.

    His tax program,  making the Reagan/Bush cuts look like they were inspired by Lenin, is for starters. To begin with, Massive tax cuts, for the rich, natch, will slice 11-12 Trillion dollars from our current expected revenues (taxes.) Mathematically, that adds 25 Trillion Dollars to our debt. That's for starters.

    How will he pay for this, you ask? Well, His Greatness will just grow the economy at 9%....problem solved! The fact that the Federal Reserve has used up every trick in the book to try and get this economy moving has, 7-8 years later, a massive two percent growth rate.

    Who knows, maybe he can pull this off. After all, he did something not a single CEO in the entire Fortune 500 has been able to match..........our "Winner's" four bankruptcies.......ever.

    But, not to worry, I'm quite certain our crack Media will dig, and, dig, and come up with something to turn off his voters. Maybe something like, "Hey, Mr. Trump, is it true not a single one of the major banks in "your" City, New York, will do business with you?

    Oops, there I go again. What do I know?

    And, that's just #1 of how he'll make America great again. Bet you can't wait for #2, 3, & 4.....

    Parent

    Kasich on the TV Today... (none / 0) (#201)
    by ScottW714 on Wed Mar 16, 2016 at 09:20:11 AM EST
    ... claiming that his win ensures Trump cannot hit the magic delegate number to get 50%.

    Parent
    I am sensing an emergency meeting soon (none / 0) (#185)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:23:58 PM EST


    Parent
    As you said (none / 0) (#27)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 10:03:51 AM EST
    Rule 40 becomes Rule 41

    If and when they so choose, the rules in place only hold for the last time they had a convention,

    Parent

    Trump just hit the threshhold (none / 0) (#38)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 11:55:25 AM EST
    Northern Mariana Islands gave Trump all 9 of it's delegates as of this morning.  He has now won 8 contests with a majority of the delegates.

    Parent
    Some of us remember May 31, 2008 (none / 0) (#39)
    by Towanda on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:21:30 PM EST
    when the Democratic Party changed its rules, that late in the campaign season -- like changing the rules of baseball in the seventh-inning stretch.

    It even was televised, several hours of it.  I know delegates and superdelegates who were angered by that -- and other actions, months later, at the convention.  Some have not been active since.  

    But the party goes on. . . .  I would not be at all surprised to see the Republicans do the same.

    Parent

    It may be splitting hairs (none / 0) (#10)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 09:31:00 PM EST
    But I can't believe they would just plug someone in that there was never a single vote cast for.

    On the other hand, if you are going to nuke the party and the election chances I suppose it would at least make sense to rune someone with at least a snowballs chance in hell of winning if possible.  Which doesn't really describe any of the current contestants.

    Although if Kasich wins Ohio him with one of the other two seems possible.

    I honestly can't even believe we are talking seriously about this.  Perhaps it my age but it would literally be better than sex.

    Parent

    Kasich (none / 0) (#11)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 09:39:25 PM EST
    might be the one they throw out there for sure if they take it away from Donald. He actually makes more sense than Rubio or any of the others like you say if he wins OH. So you can have Kasich Cruz and Trump who have at least won their home states in a primary.

    I understand NY has a ton of delegates and I'm guessing Trump is going to take NY.

    Parent

    Then there is this (none / 0) (#12)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 09:47:50 PM EST
    Kasich goes all in for amnesty

    (That's a Brietbart link)

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#16)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 10:28:13 PM EST
    I didn't say that the GOP base would support him only that it was possible that he's the one they would replace Trump with.

    Parent
    I have (none / 0) (#17)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Mar 14, 2016 at 10:29:22 PM EST
    to wonder after glancing at that article if the GOP isn't sick of the whole mixing of religion and politics too.

    Parent
    I think it's the kind of thing you back away from (none / 0) (#20)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:14:21 AM EST
    quietly once it has been exposed as a total fraud, as it has been with so many supposedly religious people supporting Trump.  Pretty soon they'll be acting like they never heard of the Christian Coalition and saying Happy Holidays.

    Parent
    Election Day Magic Numbers for the GOP (none / 0) (#34)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 11:31:00 AM EST
    By my math, and assuming no contested convention, both Kasich and Rubio will be eliminated from contention tonight.

    Kasich needs to win 140 delegates tonight, and even with an Ohio win that's a stretch of the mathematical imagination.

    Rubio needs 40 tonight. With a loss in the winner-take-alls in Florida and Ohio and a strong likelihood of finishing 4th everywhere else, Rubio should also be mathematically eliminated this evening. Only Florida can save Rubio to fight another day and the odds of him finishing 3rd are better than the odds of him finishing 1st in the Sunshine State.

    At this point (none / 0) (#35)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 11:41:44 AM EST
    Even before what happens tonight there are two possible outcomes.  A Trump win or a contested convention.  It's already impossible according to delegate counters for anything else to happen.

    I just saw an interesting discussion of this on Morning Joe.  Joe says that after what has happened in the last week or so that if Donald comes to the convention with 49% they will take it from him.  Somehow.  

    How much would you love to see that?

    Personally I would pay good money.

    Tonight was going to be fascinating before this weekend.  Way more so now.  We are going to see if what happened in Chicago helps or hurts.  I suspect it will help.  It gives me no pleasure to say that.  I think because of that Donald could sweep tonight.  I hope I'm wrong about that.  

    Parent

    I would love to see a contested convention (none / 0) (#36)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 11:52:21 AM EST
    If only, because I would like to see the process,  since I've never seen one.

    Parent
    I think Chicago helps too (none / 0) (#37)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 11:54:57 AM EST
    It reinforces his role of the tough guy against the "thugs". Yes, the 'Thug' word is coming back on all my rightie friends' FB feeds.

    Parent
    See Andy Borowitz re vegan thugs in (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 01:07:26 PM EST
    Birkenstocks and sustainable clothing wielding NPR totebags.

    Parent
    Election Day Numbers for Dems (none / 0) (#40)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:28:54 PM EST
    This is much easier.

    In the best case scenario for Sanders tonight, he wins the vote in Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio and Clinton takes Florida and North Carolina. In that best case scenario Sanders wins the headlines but he will almost assuredly fall further behind in the allocated delegate math.

    Best case scenario for Clinton: she wins all five. She'll gain delegates winning just two, but anything less than four wins will keep the Bernie horse race narrative alive.

    Current totals:
    Without SD's
    Clinton  leads 768-554
    With SD's
    Clinton leads 1235-580

    Sidenote: Even if Sanders wins 3 states, he'll lose the delegate count (when including SD's) in all five tonight. It explains why Clinton has switched to GE mode already and let Sanders outspend her everywhere but Florida tonight.

    Yale basketball caption to sue university (none / 0) (#41)
    by McBain on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:29:50 PM EST
    Apparently, there was a consensual sexual relationship on three occasions. What's in dispute is the fourth time.

    The accused player's lawyer had this to say....

    Only two persons could have known what happened on that fourth night," Stern said. "The panel chose to believe the woman, by a 'preponderance of the evidence.' We believe that it defies logic and common sense that a woman would seek to re-connect and get back into bed with a man who she says forced her to have unwanted sex just hours earlier.

    It sounds like a he said/ she said situation. If so, I'm not sure how Yale could reach such an important decision with such little information? Perhaps it has to do with the fallout of previous title IX violations that had nothing to do with the people involved in this case.

    Yale's University-Wide Committee on Sexual Misconduct was instituted in 2011, about the time the federal government investigated the university for alleged Title IX violations involving the way it handled reports of sexual misconduct.

    Title IX bars gender discrimination in education. The Department of Education interprets Title IX to say that sexual harassment is a form of sex discrimination, and therefore schools could be held responsible if they don't investigate and adjudicate these cases.

    I have no idea if the lawsuit will be successful but this entire situation stinks of political correctness.

    Link to full statement from lawyer (none / 0) (#46)
    by McBain on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:53:27 PM EST
    Link
    On the fourth occasion, she joined him in bed, voluntarily removed all of her clothes, and they had sexual intercourse. Then they got up, left the room and went separate ways. Later that same night, she reached out to him to meet up, then returned to his room voluntarily, and spent the rest of the night in his bed with him.

    Apparently, the accuser waited a year before alleging sexual assault. That's a little strange.

    Parent

    Lawyers' statements (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:56:42 PM EST
    Are NOT evidence, they are argument.

    You understand that, right?

    Parent

    Yes, thank you Captain Obvious (none / 0) (#55)
    by McBain on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 02:47:42 PM EST
    I've been very careful to point out the quotes are coming from his lawyer and father.

    The problem with this case is there probably isn't much evidence.  I would like to hear the other side of the story.  I'm sure you would too?  I just find it hard to believe the accuser waited a year before making her accusation.  

    Parent

    You'd like to know the other side of the story. (none / 0) (#62)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:11:21 PM EST
    Speaking for myself only, I'd like to know why you think it's any of your business.

    Parent
    Funny... (none / 0) (#67)
    by ScottW714 on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:50:30 PM EST
    ... no evidence and yet you know this defies logic because the coach and lawyer say so, and the implication is that she lied.  You are basically doing what you claim others are doing, but with far less evidence.

    See comment about you implying that women are liars, quite often.

    Parent

    At no point have I said this woman lied (none / 0) (#79)
    by McBain on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:28:31 PM EST
    That's your, emotionally based, incorrect interpretation of my posts.  I said it's "a little strange" that she waited a year to come forward.

    Sexual assault, he said/she said cases that come down to the issue of consent can be very tricky.   Both people can be telling the truth as they remember it.  She may very well believe that an assault took place, while he's convinced it didn't.  I don't believe we have firm/realistic definitions of sexual consent for all occasions.  

    Parent

    I think the most annoying meme from what I've... (none / 0) (#47)
    by Cashmere on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 12:56:38 PM EST
    heard...  if these adds are true, is Sanders running adds like this in Illinois (from another blogger on another post).  Talk about going negative, Sanders is pulling out everything he can if this is true.

    From the other blogger re: Bernie's Illinois ads (perhaps caseyor can comment).

    1.  Rahm-Clinton connection ads by Bernie featuring a few locals are killing me as the imagery of dilapidated buildings (reminded of Michigan Twitter), verbal reminders of the historic school closing etc. are getting tied to her due to the endorsement.

    2. Pair this with his news conference stating he "didn't want an endorsement from Rahm" and
    - "activists" hanging banners tying back to the #16Shots (Laquan McDonald Shooting) /ChicagoStandsWithLaquan vs / #HillaryForRahm...
    ...and it's machine tactics at it's best. We are getting inundated with it in Chicago. I'm absolutely positive that they are resonating. I personally think they are low, but that's neither here nor there.

    Bernie (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 02:12:10 PM EST
    is desperate. I mean it seems today is his last stand the way he is acting.

    I have no idea if that kind of thing will resonate with the voters there or not. It's not like they don't already know Hillary and Bernie also has been trashing Obama and it's his home state. So I'm not sure if overall it might be a wash for the voters.

    Parent

    If I remember correctly, Mayor Emanuel ... (5.00 / 2) (#63)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:17:36 PM EST
    ... was twice elected by Chicago voters -- though Heaven only knows why they did that -- and was not unilaterally installed in office by Hillary Clinton. Sanders' implication that she's somehow responsible for Emanuel's performance is just plain ol' fashioned demagogy. By that measure, should we in turn hold the gentleman from Vermont for a certain extremist crackpot named Wayne LaPierre?

    Parent
    We Will Know He's Gone Off the Rails... (none / 0) (#68)
    by ScottW714 on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:56:28 PM EST
    ... when he goes all kitchen sink on her, huh ?  Maybe he will answer the phone at night in an ad to show everyone just how desperate he is.

    I would also love to know what democrat wants Rahm's endorsement.

    Parent

    There is a certain irony about Bill's old (none / 0) (#117)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:53:09 PM EST
    advisor helping to sink Hillary in her own home state. Did not see that coming.

    Parent
    Obama's (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:03:50 PM EST
    adviser in his home state too.

    Kind of makes me wonder though how much of Bernie's trashing of Obama is going to come into play in IL. I mean if Rahm is a factor so should Bernie's history be a factor too.

    Parent

    Everybody hates Rahm. (none / 0) (#145)
    by caseyOR on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:39:18 PM EST
    And Bernie is exploiting that hate in central Illinois, as well as the Chicago area. I don't know about southern Illinois.

    The Laquan MacDonald case was the final straw. Rahm is a total d!ck, and after the last election he stopped trying to hide his essential d!ckishness.

    Hanging Rahm around Hillary's neck is a low move, but it could be effective. As I said, everybody hates Rahm.

    Parent

    Mr. Clean plays Chicago politics (none / 0) (#176)
    by Towanda on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:13:35 PM EST
    pretty well for a "purity" candidate.

    He's just a pol.

    Parent

    Best Explanation for Trump Support I've Seen (none / 0) (#51)
    by RickyJim on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 02:18:54 PM EST
    It's all about resentment that minorities are able to do things they aren't.  The comments go into whether life is a zero sum game.
    Trump feels their pain. He assures them their resentment isn't racism, that the implicit accusations they feel oppressed by are mere political correctness. He tells them they are entitled to the privileges they see others getting--and that, when he is in charge, they will get them back.

    Link

    Yup, I said that last week or earlier (5.00 / 1) (#179)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:15:33 PM EST
    They are convinced minorities and immigrants are getting some kind of sweetheart deal that white American males are missing out on.

    Parent
    The bigger (none / 0) (#53)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 02:35:54 PM EST
    point is their views are not new. These people did not all of a sudden start to feel this way under Obama. I have heard this same resentment at least since 1980 from Republicans here in the south.

    Parent
    Howdy (none / 0) (#52)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 02:27:28 PM EST
    you will appreciate this on facebook today?

    FL voter: I can't vote today because it's a closed primary.
    Me: Well, don't you think Republicans and Democrats should be able to choose their own candidate without having interference from voters of the other party?
    FL voter: Well, that is not really my concern as I don't like anybody. However, I want to stop Donald Trump.
    Me: Well, you could have changed your registration so you could vote in the GOP primary.
    Fl Voter: Well, you have to change it so far in advance and I thought Donald would be gone by now.
    Me: Well, you're not the only one that thought that. I said apparently a lot of Republican voters think he's A-okay. Fl voter then went on to talk about the idiots who are voting for Trump.


    On the other hand (none / 0) (#54)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 02:41:07 PM EST
    I just saw a report from a heavily democratic district in Ohio where democrats are picking up republican ballots and voting in the republican primary at 7 times what would be expected and they are voting for trump.

    Parent
    They also (none / 0) (#59)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:04:18 PM EST
    say those ballots are going for Kasich to try and stop Trump.

    Parent
    Who says that? (none / 0) (#60)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:05:59 PM EST


    Parent
    I ask because they were (none / 0) (#61)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:09:10 PM EST
    Interviewing on MSNBC.    Hearing things like I have never voted for a republican in my life.  Trump is the only republican I will ever vote for.

    Parent
    Uh oh (none / 0) (#70)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:02:15 PM EST
    They just talked to a democrat who voted for Kasich.  

    This is going to be very interesting

    Parent

    "listening between the lines" (none / 0) (#56)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 02:52:18 PM EST
    On MSNBC they are suggesting Donald is going to have a "very good night"

    They see exit polls.

    I believe one of the words used was "eye popping"

    Parent

    I guess (none / 0) (#57)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:01:33 PM EST
    we'll see. Exit polls often are not that accurate this early. I don't doubt that Trump is going to win but I don't know about the margins.

    Also remember MSNBC was saying that Bernie was going to make it close in SC because of all the African American voters that were turning away from Hillary onto Bernie. I don't trust that kind of stuff.

    Parent

    Whatever (none / 0) (#58)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:04:07 PM EST
    Floats yer boat

    Parent
    I'd put Disney in charge of redecorating the (none / 0) (#198)
    by Mr Natural on Wed Mar 16, 2016 at 08:34:18 AM EST
    Trump House, er, White House.

    Parent
    My Predictions! (none / 0) (#64)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:32:18 PM EST
    REPUBLICANS

    Ohio

    Kasich 46%
    Trump 34%
    Cruz 11%
    Rubio 6%

    Florida

    Trump 41%
    Rubio 28%
    Cruz 16%
    Kasich 13%

    North Carolina

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 36%
    Kasich 16%
    Rubio 8%

    Missouri

    Cruz 38%
    Trump 34%
    Kasich 19%
    Rubio 9%

    Illinois

    Trump 40%
    Cruz 36%
    Kasich 20%
    Rubio 4%

    DEMOCRATS

    Ohio

    Clinton 56%
    Sanders 44%

    Illinois

    Sanders 51%
    Clinton 48%

    Florida

    Clinton 64%
    Sanders 36%

    North Carolina

    Clinton 62%
    Sanders 38%

    Missouri

    Sanders 54%
    Clinton 46%

    I hope (none / 0) (#97)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:15:35 PM EST
    you are right. I'll be happy if Hillary takes Ohio, NC and Florida.

    Parent
    Nate Silver sees ... (none / 0) (#98)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:24:15 PM EST
    Ohio as more competitive Illinois.

    But I don't see it that way.  And I've been better than Silver this cycle.

    Parent

    for (none / 0) (#105)
    by FlJoe on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:40:42 PM EST
    some reason polling on the democratic side has been very iffy to say the least. Strangely, despite having more candidates, the polling on the Republican side has been far  more reliable.

    The pollsters appear to be having a problem with modeling the Democratic turnout, maybe it's some kind of cell phone effect.

    Parent

    I think it's not just phones (none / 0) (#108)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:46:00 PM EST
    It's the new Bernie voters

    Parent
    The only states that were a real ... (none / 0) (#112)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:48:13 PM EST
    surprise were Michigan and the size of Clinton's win in SC.

    Everything else was basically in line with polling and/or demography.

    Parent

    Since (none / 0) (#115)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:51:48 PM EST
    As you mention RCP has her winning 5 states tonight and she probably won't that may not support your point.

    Parent
    Those are averages ... (none / 0) (#121)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:56:00 PM EST
    elections aren't averages.

    There has been polling data to support all the Dem outcomes except the two I mentioned.

    Parent

    What? (none / 0) (#124)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:00:47 PM EST


    Parent
    The RCP averages ... (none / 0) (#128)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:04:35 PM EST
    are averages.

    Elections aren't averages of behavior.

    Parent

    I have no idea (none / 0) (#134)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:08:09 PM EST
    What that is supposed to mean but the polls were wrong.  And they might be tonight.

    Parent
    Polls are discreet ... (none / 0) (#137)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:15:37 PM EST
    events. Each person who votes just votes once.

    Parent
    Elections, I mean, not polls. (none / 0) (#139)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:22:40 PM EST


    Parent
    MS (none / 0) (#125)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:00:53 PM EST
    was off by about 22 points. They should have adjusted their polling after SC but apparently they did not.

    Parent
    I (none / 0) (#133)
    by FlJoe on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:06:29 PM EST
    guess I got ahead of myself, everybody is expecting her to underperform in IL,OH and MO, so we will see tonight if a trend is developing.

    Parent
    Nah, they have the ... (none / 0) (#110)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:46:33 PM EST
    cell phone thing sorted.

    That's a non issue.

    Parent

    Yeah (none / 0) (#113)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:49:28 PM EST
    I'm not trusting Silver much these days. Actually I don't trust the polling either. The only thing I'm pretty certain about tonight is Fl and NC because there is enough of a spread there.

    Parent
    mine (none / 0) (#66)
    by FlJoe on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 03:47:19 PM EST
    REPUBLICANS
    Ohio

    Kasich 42%
    Trump 38%
    Cruz 14%
    Rubio 6%

    Florida

    Trump 43%
    Rubio 25%
    Cruz 16%
    Kasich 13%

    North Carolina

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 34%
    Kasich 17%
    Rubio 8%

    Missouri

    Cruz 34%
    Trump 38%
    Kasich 19%
    Rubio 9%

    Illinois

    Trump 40%
    Cruz 36%
    Kasich 20%
    Rubio 4%

    DEMOCRATS

    Ohio

    Clinton 50%
    Sanders 40%

    Illinois

    Sanders 49%
    Clinton 51%

    Florida

    Clinton 62%
    Sanders 38%

    North Carolina

    Clinton 60%
    Sanders 30%

    Missouri

    Sanders 52%
    Clinton 48%

    Was this (none / 0) (#80)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:30:16 PM EST
    Missouri

    Cruz 34%
    Trump 38%
    Kasich 19%
    Rubio 9%

    Supposed to be Trump 28?

    Parent

    No (none / 0) (#84)
    by FlJoe on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:41:38 PM EST
    I think Trump will win MO, with the delegates being closely split. The district by district battle will be very important there.

    Parent
    Interesting (none / 0) (#86)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:43:52 PM EST
    Many seem to think Cruz would win and I thought because of the order ....

    I would think if Curz would win anywhere it would be there.   But I doubt he will.

    Parent

    I (none / 0) (#91)
    by FlJoe on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:58:41 PM EST
    just cut and pasted Robots list and changed the numbers, to lazy to flip the order.

    Trumps numbers appear to be really good in places where there is a lot of racial tensions...hello Ferguson and the rest of St. Louis where Trump should rack up big margins, he should also do good in KC but I expect Cruz to do well in the more Rural areas, but I don't think the margins will be enough for him to win the statewide.

    Parent

    You really think (none / 0) (#94)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:07:08 PM EST
    She's going to win Illinois and Ohio?

    Parent
    She could win ... (none / 0) (#103)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:34:00 PM EST
    all five states. It's very possible.  RCP averages has her winning all five.

    I have her losing Missouri and Illinois. But it wouldn't be a shocker if she won them.

    Parent

    The way it's sounding (none / 0) (#71)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:05:08 PM EST
    I think you might both be low balling Donald in FL.

    His margin so far in the state has been described as eye popping

    I could (none / 0) (#81)
    by FlJoe on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:37:29 PM EST
    easily see Trump topping 45% but I am thinking the barrage of pac attacks may have slowed him down just a bit. I do think that there some "anybody but Trump" voters being driven to the polls. We will see.

    Parent
    That was just beng discussed (none / 0) (#83)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:41:37 PM EST
    The ads have had an effect.   His margin has gone up 5-6 points since last week.

    The way they are talking I think it might be over 50.

    Parent

    Which btw (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:45:40 PM EST
    Is sort of remarkable.  More than 20 mill in negative ads in the last week or so.

    Up 6 points.

    Parent

    I would (none / 0) (#85)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:43:30 PM EST
    not be surprised to see Donald get close to 60% in Florida.

    You know, with Florida there can be no complaints of so and so is messing with our primary. It's closed and it's in a swing state and I frankly think that fact is awesome because I'm tired of people messing in primaries.

    Parent

    It would be extremely difficult to reach 60 (none / 0) (#89)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:51:52 PM EST
    in a 4 person race, especially with 13 people on the ballot

    However, Rubio did give an insider's view on what's happening today by saying he wouldn't predict victory but wouldn't lose by 20 points.

    Parent

    He can't get 60%. (none / 0) (#104)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:37:58 PM EST
    There's a 25% minority turnout.  The highest of any Republican state yet.  And that, combined, with the suburban voters, makes 60% impossible.

    Early voting had him at 49%.  And he consistently does worse with later voters.

    Parent

    Both FlJoe and Robot Porter (none / 0) (#73)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:13:21 PM EST
    predict mathematical elimination tonight for Kasich and Rubio.

    And both predict a sound delegate thumping of Sanders by Clinton.

    What do YOU think? (5.00 / 1) (#77)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:22:58 PM EST
    I think Donald may well win everywhere except possibly Ohio.  I think Chicago might just push him over in MO.

    I think Bernie may take IL.  

    Parent

    I'm not a list of results guy (none / 0) (#74)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:16:49 PM EST
    But I'm pretty sure Clinton is going t take the night I delegates whatever else happens.   FL alone will assure that, right?

    Parent
    I guess (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:22:35 PM EST
    if Sanders could win Ohio by 30 points he could keep the delegate count close tonight.

    Parent
    Plouffe (none / 0) (#82)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:39:41 PM EST
    Is talking about the fact that massive numbers of democrats in Ohio are voting in the republican primary and he says that will probably come out of Hillarys vote.

    Interesting.  I would think, assuming any of that is "stop Trump" it would as likely be Sanders voters.  Then again maybe not.  Feeling the Bern and all that.

    He said Sanders might win Ohio and Mo.  Didn't mention IL.  

    Parent

    If Sanders wins all 3 of those (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:46:38 PM EST
    He wins the headline but probably handily loses the battle for delegates again because Florida alone will give Clinton a bigger plus in delegates than the plus Sanders gains in the other three.

    Parent
    Andrea Mitchell (none / 0) (#96)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:14:21 PM EST
    And Chris Hayes are VERY excited about that possible headline.  Hayes actually seems a little giddy about the possibility of Bernie winning some black people because of Rahm.

    Parent
    Who (none / 0) (#90)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:57:28 PM EST
    knows. All the colleges are on spring break this week. So that probably hurts Bernie a lot. However how much it hurts Hillary is anybody's guess simply due to the fact do you think the polls are right that say she's 20 points ahead or the polls that say she's 9 points ahead.

    Parent
    Yeah, and if I had furry ears you ... (none / 0) (#107)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:43:52 PM EST
    could call me a rabbit.

    There is no way Sanders is winning any state tonight by 30 points.

    Parent

    I think it was a joke (none / 0) (#109)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:46:25 PM EST


    Parent
    Oops (none / 0) (#75)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:17:24 PM EST
    Misread your comment

    Parent
    I (none / 0) (#78)
    by FlJoe on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 04:27:09 PM EST
    am a bit worried about Hillary's numbers in the midwest but she will surely extend her delegate lead. It's all about the delegates, on both sides.

    I haven't really been scrutinizing  the polls lately so most of my numbers are gut feelings.


    Parent

    Question: (none / 0) (#95)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:10:48 PM EST
    I know I should know this but in the 2382 delegate needed to win, are the superdelegates included in that total?  In other words, if you took away the superdelegates completely, would the "delegates needed to win" be reduced by that amount?

    I guess what I'm asking is can a candidate, theoretically, get to 2382 without any superdelegates?

    Yes, (none / 0) (#99)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:24:56 PM EST
    you can get to that number without super delegates.

    Parent
    It is said many democrats (none / 0) (#100)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:27:34 PM EST
    In Ohio are crossing over to vote for Kasich and stop Trump.

    I'm a little fuzzy on the logic there.  If they are democrats and they want a democrat to win wouldn't a Trump candidacy make sense.   What am I missing?

    I get the people voting for Trump want him to win.  Do the ones voting for Kasich want him to win or do they just want to stop Trump and illogically want a more effective opponent for Hillary?

    Maybe they are thinking (5.00 / 1) (#101)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:28:56 PM EST
    Cruz would be a better opponent.

    Parent
    Ok (none / 0) (#102)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:30:12 PM EST
    That works

    Parent
    Historically reports of this ... (none / 0) (#114)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:50:29 PM EST
    have ALWAYS been wrong.

    So, again, I doubt it's happening in any significant way.

    Parent

    You doubt what's happening (none / 0) (#118)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:53:38 PM EST
    There IS massive crossover voting.  It's not an opinion or a projection it's a fact.

    Parent
    They say that every cycle ... (none / 0) (#126)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:02:15 PM EST
    and when they go back and look at it vanishes.

    All voting demography during an election is based on Exits.  Exits have massive margins of error.

    You need to go back and compare the actual numbers with census data and district by district turnout.  And then compare that with the Exit numbers.

    When this is done significant crossover voting always vanishes.

    Parent

    It's not exit polling. It is precincts reporting (5.00 / 1) (#132)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:06:25 PM EST
    the numbers of people they had switching from a Dem ballot their registration would have called for to a GOP ballot.

    Parent
    Thank you (none / 0) (#135)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:09:03 PM EST


    Parent
    I heard it myself or I would not be so sure (none / 0) (#136)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:11:57 PM EST
    Also there is a local news flash in FL that some places have run out of ballots and they are not extending voting hours to get more. I guess in a primary they are not obligated?

    Parent
    Ok look (none / 0) (#130)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:05:37 PM EST
    I telling you every news source has been reporting all day that there are massive numbers of democrats getting republican ballots and voting in the republican primary.  It's easily quantifiable.  It's state wide. In many places there are 7 times more republican votes that ever before.

    This is going to be a very big story tonight and it is not going to "vanish"

    Parent

    Have (none / 0) (#129)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:04:51 PM EST
    you thought maybe the media is overplaying this?

    Parent
    There are numbers (none / 0) (#131)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:06:15 PM EST
    There are reporting numbers.

    Parent
    I think they just want their governor (none / 0) (#120)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:55:36 PM EST
    who is a credible president to beat Trump and stay in the face. I don't think it means anything regarding GE strategy.

    What it will do is screw up poling in November since now they are down as Republicans.

    Parent

    According to polling (none / 0) (#122)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 05:57:48 PM EST
    Kasich trounces Hillary in Ohio.

    His approval is like 80+%.

    Which makes it amazing Donald is even making it a race

    Parent

    Maybe the are putting their country first (none / 0) (#197)
    by FreakyBeaky on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 10:07:15 PM EST
    After all, if nominated Trump will have a non-zero chance of becoming President.

    On the other hand, maybe they just want to see a brokered convention.

    Parent

    Polls are closed in all but the panhandle (none / 0) (#138)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:21:41 PM EST
    in Florida.

    6 minutes (none / 0) (#140)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:24:08 PM EST
    To the first calls

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    If these are absentee ballots that popped up (none / 0) (#141)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:25:24 PM EST
    Florida will not be kind to anyone not named Trump or Clinton

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    I guess they may not call (none / 0) (#142)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:26:50 PM EST
    Till the top of the hour

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    They'll wait until (none / 0) (#143)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:29:04 PM EST
    8:00ET when all the polls have closed in Florida.

    They won't have to wait in North Carolina. They'll call that shortly after 7:30ET

    Parent

    Exit (none / 0) (#144)
    by FlJoe on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:39:18 PM EST
    polls showing Hillary leading in Ohio, she's crushing in FL and cruising in NC tonight is shaping up well for her so far.

    Parent
    Cruz (none / 0) (#146)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:51:31 PM EST
    Is losing evangelicals to Donald in NC and coming in third with evangelicals on Ohio.

    Parent
    And Marco (none / 0) (#147)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:54:46 PM EST
    Is losing by 30.

    But Bernie is losing in FL by 33

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    Oops (none / 0) (#148)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 06:55:14 PM EST
    Marco is 20 not 30

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    Yeah (none / 0) (#149)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:02:14 PM EST
    in Ohio it's not going to play out for Bernie according to exit polls based on demographics. She and Bernie are splitting the white vote and she's winning the black vote like 75/25. So she's likely the winner in Ohio tonight.

    Parent
    Florida (none / 0) (#150)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:05:26 PM EST
    called for Hillary.

    CNN just called Florida for Clinton (none / 0) (#151)
    by caseyOR on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:05:58 PM EST
    and Trump.

    Clinton leading in North Carolina and Ohio. Based on exit polls, Sanders leads in Illinois and Missouri.

    At what point (none / 0) (#152)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:06:17 PM EST
    Did the reporters covering the individual campaigns become spokesmen for the spin of the campaign?

    That's sure what they have become.

    Oh for f sake Mathews (none / 0) (#153)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:07:43 PM EST
    'If Hillary were smart she'd pick Kasich as VP.'

    No. Just no. I might vore for Jill Stein myself if she does that.

    Probably about as likely (none / 0) (#154)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:09:03 PM EST
    As VP Tweety

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    WHy (none / 0) (#159)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:29:30 PM EST
    on earth would she ever pick Kasich for VP? This is a perfect example of how the stupid media people think and say at their cocktail weenie parties.

    Parent
    It's all part of Tweety's bipartisan unity schtick (none / 0) (#161)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:32:24 PM EST
    fantasy.

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    Of course (5.00 / 1) (#162)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:39:45 PM EST
    But this is why nobody on the left or right takes the beltway media seriously because they spout this kind of nonsense.

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    If Hillary were smart?? (none / 0) (#163)
    by Peter G on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:41:34 PM EST
    Hillary is nothing if not smart. But CM-Tweety is not.

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    They are heckling poor Marco (none / 0) (#155)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:16:37 PM EST
    At his concession speech.   That's just mean.

    He had a week to put this speech together (none / 0) (#156)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:20:44 PM EST
    and he sounds like someone that just lost a race for city councilman. He works best on robot mode.

    Parent
    He gets to me when he talks about (5.00 / 2) (#160)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:30:18 PM EST
    his parents. Not enough to ever vote for him, but I thought the speech was fine.

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    Looks like we officially have a (none / 0) (#158)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:25:10 PM EST
    Ménage à trois

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    This is leaving primary night speech mode (none / 0) (#157)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:23:40 PM EST
    and venturing into his I'm leaving the race tomorrow mode.

    And there it is...Rubio is now out

    Parent

    I think my old fantasy (none / 0) (#168)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:48:29 PM EST
    Of Trump/Cruz has been resurrected.  Of course. Depending on the coming bloodletting.  

    But Cruz has also come out strongly against an open convention.  Probably because he (probably rightly) suspects he would not fare well being friendless.

    I can see him taking VP to stay in the mix if Donald doesn't make the count.  Not sure Kasich would do it but it seems one of them is very likely if no one gets to the magic 50%

    I can see that. Probably even betting Trump (none / 0) (#169)
    by ruffian on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:50:28 PM EST
    would not even serve out his first term.

    Parent
    Cruz (none / 0) (#180)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:15:43 PM EST
    is crazy enough to accept VP for Donald. Not sure about Kasich. He might want to run for the senate at some later time. I can imagine being Donald's VP a career killer. Cruz has nothing to lose.

    Parent
    MSNBC calls for Kasich in Ohio (none / 0) (#170)
    by sallywally on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:53:48 PM EST


    The media (none / 0) (#172)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:58:46 PM EST
    Wil be in an open ended Kasichghasm starting now.

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    Until (none / 0) (#192)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 09:10:17 PM EST
    they have sat through five of his speeches where they had to be tied to the chair to stay and listen.

    He's actually fine and pretty good in small doses but longer than that he seems to start to bob and twitch.

    Now Mr. Medicare expansion is going to be last one of the three. I wonder what Trump is going to do to him or maybe it will be nothing because he doesn't consider him a threat.

    Parent

    Good lord (none / 0) (#187)
    by Suisser1 on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:30:02 PM EST
    is he always such a horrible speaker?? Dreadful

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    Cruz closing ... (none / 0) (#171)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 07:56:17 PM EST
    in NC.

    And things look close to for Trump in MO.

    Trump (none / 0) (#175)
    by FlJoe on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:12:39 PM EST
    will probably still eke out a win but probably only gain a handful of delegates over Cruz.

    There is going to be a district by district dog fight in MO for delegates, Trump has a good chance of getting all the delegates in IL if he maintains his current margins.

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    Tiny portion (none / 0) (#178)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:14:48 PM EST
    Reporting in MO

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    Still very tight ... (none / 0) (#195)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 09:38:10 PM EST
    in MO with 71% reporting.

    Trump 41.8%
    Cruz 41.2%

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    A statewide win in Missouri (none / 0) (#196)
    by CoralGables on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 10:04:40 PM EST
    gets the winner 12 delegates. In a very tight race that's a nice reward. The remainder are winner-take-alls in each congressional district.

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    Hillary (none / 0) (#177)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:13:43 PM EST
    Is winning everywhere.

    I can't decide if she sounds more like Pattie or Selma

    CNN (none / 0) (#181)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:16:22 PM EST
    Tracking site is pretty good

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    Missed the link (none / 0) (#183)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:18:34 PM EST
    I think it's set to Ohio but there are pull downs for all states and both parties

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    The crowd (none / 0) (#182)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 15, 2016 at 08:18:11 PM EST
    seems to be going wild.

    Parent
    Monday Night Open Thread | 201 comments (201 topical)