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Poll: Clinton Leads Among Hispanics in Key Battleground States

A new poll of Hispanic voters in several key battleground states show Hillary with a significant lead among Hispanic voters. The poll is by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economic Polling Initiative. The press release is here and the poll results are here.

The states are: Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina. Some interesting points before we get to the numbers:

  • Clinton leads Trump among younger Hispanic voters (18 to 34 years old) in all five states by a range of 24 to 45 points. Clinton is also winning among Hispanic Independents in every state except Ohio.
  • Trump suffers from a very unfavorable image in every state, faring worst in Colorado with nearly 80 percent of Hispanics having an unfavorable opinion of him. Trump’s highest favorable rating is in Florida at 33 percent. Clinton has more than 50 percent of favorable ratings among Hispanics in every state except Florida, where she is at 49 percent.

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Fainting and Medical Comparisons

Dr. Jen Gunter at The Hill writes an article, "Yes, Hillary almost fainted: I'm a doctor and it's really OK."

The medical term for fainting is syncope. Syncope is the temporary loss of consciousness and posture, due to a temporary insufficient flow of blood (and hence oxygen) to the brain. If the feeling of faintness and light-headedness and weakness comes but there is no loss of consciousness, the event is called near-syncope.

...The Journal of Geriatric Cardiology published a pretty definitive list of potential syncope causes in this useful review article about older adults.

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Hillary Feels Fine, Recovering from Pneumonia

Bump and Update 9/12/16: Hillary has been diagnosed with pneumonia. She's taking antibiotics and her doctor says she is recovering nicely.

*****

Hillary got overheated at a 911 Memorial today. She left, went to Chelsea's apartment, and emerged later saying she felt great.

Temperatures on Sunday morning in New York hovered around 80 degrees most of the morning. At the start of the ceremony, the dew point was around 72 degrees — which produces oppressive humidity, according to meteorologists. The humidity declined sharply during the ceremony, and by 11 a.m., the air was drier and pleasant.

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Countdown to the End of Primary Season

It was June 7, 2008 that Hillary Clinton withdrew from the Democratic presidential nomination race. I remember it well, since I was in Aspen for a NORML legal seminar and watched the speech on TV there.

Sanders, apparently, is not dropping out. No matter. He could win California and it still won't matter.

A whopping total of 475 delegates are at stake, but if it’s as close as the polls suggest, the winner stands to net a mere 20 or 30 delegates. Using this excellent delegate calculator, let’s go through all the remaining races and then circle back to the big prize, bearing in mind that right now, among pledged delegates, it’s Clinton up by 268, 1,769 to 1,501.

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Hillary Town Hall

Hillary Clinton is doing a town hall with Rachel Maddow. I don't think it's live, but it had to be filmed since yesterday, since they are discussing the Cruz-Kasich alliance.

Hillary sounds very confident. She reminds Rachel a few times she is 2.7 million votes ahead.

She doesn't sound worried about Sanders, or whether he tells his supporters to support her.

She emphasizes her support for the Democratic party. She is raising money for Democrats down ticket.

Maddow keeps trying to get her to acknowledge Sanders' permanent mark on the Democratic party. She won't say he changed the party. Instead she says how important it is to support Democrats. And for Democrats to increase their turnout at midterm elections, not just presidential elections.

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Hillary Wins Nevada Caucuses

Hillary Clinton bested Bernie Sanders today in the Nevada Democratic caucuses. As of now,
Hillary has 52.5% to Bernies 47.4% with 86% of the vote in. The LA Times reports Bernie won the northern Nevada counties that Obama took in 2008, while the Washington Post says her support among African-Americans was very strong, and Bernie did pretty well among Latinos.

But according to preliminary entrance polls reported by CNN, she won among black Democrats by a whopping 76 percent to 22 percent. African Americans made up 13 percent of the electorate, according to the entrance poll, while 19 percent were Hispanic and 59 percent were white. Sanders held an eight-point edge among Hispanic voters, who accounted for roughly 1 in 5 caucus-goers, and the two candidates split white voters about evenly.

The LA Times also says Hillary won the casino vote. The Caesar's precinct chair says the vote was 190 for Hillary and 81 for Sanders. More on this from the Wall St. Journal. Here's a photo of Bill in the Caesar's ballroom at caucus time: [More...]

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Iowa Still Up for Grabs?

Hillary Clinton has a three point lead in the final Selzer poll -- also called the Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll -- before today's Iowa caucuses. Here are the poll questions and the methodology.

Nate Silver at 538 says Hillary may just win Iowa. He opines Bernie Sanders is close, but has failed to grab the momentum. (Feel free to disagree with him, but skip the name-calling and personal attacks or your comment will be deleted. They aren't welcome here as to anyone.)

538 also favorably dissects the historical accuracy of Selzer's Iowa poll (there's a reason it's called the best of the Iowa polls, but still, it's not perfect.) [More...]

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Sanders Sues DNC, Case Settled, Dems to Debate in NH

Here's the complaint Bernie Sanders' campaign filed in federal court against the DNC for suspending its access to public voter data. The case was quickly resolved. What the ruckus was about:

The suit came shortly after campaign manager Jeff Weaver acknowledged at a Washington news conference that Sanders staffers had improperly reviewed information gathered by rival Hillary Clinton earlier in the week. But he accused the DNC of over­reacting to the breach by suspending the Sanders campaign’s ability to access the computer system containing information about Democratic-leaning voters, including data the campaign has gathered about its own supporters.

The Dems will debate tonight in New Hampshire. What should Hillary say about Sanders' data breach and the DNC's response?

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Hillary Pledges Not To Describe Immigrants as "Illegal"

During a Telemundo Facebook chat, Hillary Clinton said her use of the term "illegal" in conjunction with "immigrants" at a campaign speech in New Hampshire a few weeks ago was a poor choice of words and she won't be repeating it.

Here's the question she was asked: [More...]

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Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Iowa

Tonight is the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Iowa. There are 100 days left before the Iowa caucuses.

Hillary is on now. You can watch here. She is all fired up.

"Republicans say I'm playing the gender card. Well if talking about equal pay, paid, family leave, affordable child care and women's health is playing the gender card, deal me in."
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Benghazi Hearing: Republicans Have Bark, No Bite

I listened to an hour or so of the 9 hour hearing on Benghazi today. Republicans failed to land any punches. And Hillary sounded just like she intended: calm and in control. Bottom line: She got a free 9 hours of air time to tout her knowledge of foreign affairs and show she's the most presidential of all the candidates.

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Clinton-Castro Appearance in San Antonio


Photo by Jerry Lara /San Antonio Express-News

Housing Secretary Julian Castro endorsed Hillary Clinton today. They spoke at joint rally in San Antonio to enthusiastic crowds.

Hillary and Castro have been building ties for a while now. He's often been mentioned as a potential VP choice for her. At the 2012 Democratic Convention, he spoke the same night as Michelle Obama -- I thought: "Michelle Obama was good but hands down, the star of the night was Julian Castro.

Definitely a winning combination in my book.

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